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TrueCar Forecasts Industry Retail Sales Soar 34% for the 4th Quarter

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc. projects that total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Total new vehicle sales will reach 1,605,101 units in December 2020, down 6.5% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.2 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects US retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,428,094 units, a decrease of 2.2% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction price (ATP) is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020, setting an all-time record as the figure ticks closer to $40,000. TrueCar projects that US revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $62 billion for December 2020, up 10.2% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 35.6% from last month.

“In the final days of 2020, we can finally look in the rearview mirror and appreciate the tremendous recovery that the automotive industry has made since the pandemic derailed auto sales in March. Retail vehicle sales have nearly reached normal levels with sales down only 2.2% from last year, which is a truly impressive outcome,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “The momentum from a strong third quarter carried into the fourth quarter and solidified the industry’s comeback. Production and inventory have gone back up in the fourth quarter and, as a result, retail sales are up 34% quarter-over-quarter.”

Total new vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 14.6M, down 15% year-over-year for 2020 and new vehicle retail sales are forecasted to reach 12.7M, down 8% compared with 2019. Used vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 38.4M for 2020, down 6% year-over-year.

Insights from TrueCar’s end-of-year forecast by brand:

  • Three brands increased volume in 2020 (Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo) --- all luxury brands.
  • Volvo moved up the most in the rankings, up four places from 27 to 23.
  • Tesla, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, and Lincoln each moved up two spots.
  • Tesla surpassed Audi sales to become the #4 luxury brand.

“Luxury vehicle sales were an unexpected sales story for 2020, with higher-income Americans, some of whom were not as financially impacted by the pandemic, delivering strong luxury vehicle purchases this year,” added Woolard. “Brands such as Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo increased their volume year-over-year, and even Lamborghini broke sales records in 2020.”

Additional Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

  • Total retail sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 2.2% from a year ago and up 6% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 31.3% from a year ago and up 34.3% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4.4% from a year ago from 16.9 million units to 16.2 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for December 2020 are expected to reach 3.1 million, up 6% from a year ago and up 7% from November 2020.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.0%.

“Average transaction price has continued to increase month-over-month this year and set a record in December, with the average new vehicle in the US costing $38,979. This is a notable increase of almost $1,000 from last month,” said Alain Nana-Sinkam, Vice President of Strategic Initiatives at TrueCar. “New vehicle buyers are gravitating toward luxury brands such as Porsche, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes. These brands are experiencing some of the biggest increases in their average transaction price month-over-month.”

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

  • Total unit sales for Q4 are expected to be down 3.8% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 4.5% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

December 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Dec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 ActualYoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW41,72738,15931,0059.4%-2.4%34.6%10.5%
Daimler28,56835,27929,580-19.0%-27.7%-3.4%-20.7%
FCA198,108191,075137,9133.7%-7.4%43.6%18.0%
Ford197,476216,439148,816-8.8%-18.5%32.7%9.0%
GM306,843277,640212,41510.5%-1.3%44.5%18.7%
Honda133,574136,566102,614-2.2%-12.7%30.2%6.9%
Hyundai69,17466,94556,1063.3%-7.7%23.3%1.3%
Kia54,81351,22947,8977.0%-4.5%14.4%-6.0%
Nissan100,925104,78172,816-3.7%-14.0%38.6%13.9%
Subaru63,67562,36450,4132.1%-8.8%26.3%3.8%
Tesla35,19723,30021,65051.1%34.9%62.6%33.5%
Toyota250,877207,373205,52321.0%8.0%22.1%0.3%
Volkswagen Group61,96258,81651,3975.3%-5.9%20.6%-1.0%
Industry 1,605,101 1,533,555 1,214,891 4.7%-6.5%32.1%8.5%


Retail Unit Sales

ManufacturerDec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 ActualYoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW40,99135,29030,03016.2%3.7%36.5%12.1%
Daimler27,98432,70728,753-14.4%-23.6%-2.7%-20.1%
FCA164,000147,745121,78511.0%-0.9%34.7%10.6%
Ford161,082162,750116,827-1.0%-11.6%37.9%13.3%
GM266,528213,566185,32324.8%11.4%43.8%18.1%
Honda133,016135,438102,141-1.8%-12.3%30.2%7.0%
Hyundai64,36156,01551,11814.9%2.6%25.9%3.4%
Kia52,77447,03646,52912.2%0.2%13.4%-6.8%
Nissan82,78082,84667,602-0.1%-10.8%22.5%0.6%
Subaru61,30159,91449,4292.3%-8.6%24.0%1.9%
Tesla35,18523,30021,63651.0%34.8%62.6%33.6%
Toyota222,844195,176190,23514.2%1.9%17.1%-3.8%
Volkswagen Group61,00956,13751,1898.7%-3.0%19.2%-2.1%
Industry 1,428,094 1,303,388 1,106,613 9.6%-2.2%29.1%6.0%


Fleet Unit Sales

ManufacturerDec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 ActualYoY %
Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % ChangeMoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW7362,869975-74.3%-77.1%-24.5%-38.0%
Daimler5842,572827-77.3%-79.7%-29.4%-42.0%
FCA34,10843,33016,128-21.3%-29.7%111.5%73.7%
Ford36,39453,68931,989-32.2%-39.5%13.8%-6.5%
GM40,31564,07427,092-37.1%-43.8%48.8%22.2%
Honda5581,128473-50.5%-55.8%18.0%-3.1%
Hyundai4,81310,9304,988-56.0%-60.7%-3.5%-20.7%
Kia2,0394,1931,368-51.4%-56.6%49.0%22.4%
Nissan18,14521,9355,214-17.3%-26.1%248.0%185.9%
Subaru2,3742,450984-3.1%-13.5%141.3%98.2%
Tesla12-14- - -14.3%-29.6%
Toyota28,03312,19715,288129.8%105.2%83.4%50.6%
Volkswagen Group9532,679208-64.4%-68.2%358.2%276.4%
Industry 177,008 230,167 108,278 -23.1%-31.3%63.5%34.3%


Fleet Penetration

ManufacturerDec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 ActualYoY % ChangeMoM % Change
BMW1.8%7.5%3.1%-76.5%-43.9%
Daimler2.0%7.3%2.8%-72.0%-26.9%
FCA17.2%22.7%11.7%-24.1%47.2%
Ford18.4%24.8%21.5%-25.7%-14.3%
GM13.1%23.1%12.8%-43.1%3.0%
Honda0.4%0.8%0.5%-49.4%-9.4%
Hyundai7.0%16.3%8.9%-57.4%-21.7%
Kia3.7%8.2%2.9%-54.6%30.2%
Nissan18.0%20.9%7.2%-14.1%151.1%
Subaru3.7%3.9%2.0%-5.1%91.0%
Tesla0.0%0.0%0.1%- -47.3%
Toyota11.2%5.9%7.4%90.0%50.2%
Volkswagen Group1.5%4.6%0.4%-66.2%280.1%
Industry11.0%15.0%8.9%-26.5%23.7%


Total Market Share

ManufacturerDec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 Actual
BMW2.6%2.5%2.6%
Daimler1.8%2.3%2.4%
FCA12.3%12.5%11.4%
Ford12.3%14.1%12.2%
GM19.1%18.1%17.5%
Honda8.3%8.9%8.4%
Hyundai4.3%4.4%4.6%
Kia3.4%3.3%3.9%
Nissan6.3%6.8%6.0%
Subaru4.0%4.1%4.1%
Tesla2.2%1.5%1.8%
Toyota15.6%13.5%16.9%
Volkswagen Group3.9%3.8%4.2%


Retail Market Share

ManufacturerDec 2020 ForecastDec 2019 ActualNov 2020 Actual
BMW2.9%2.7%2.7%
Daimler2.0%2.5%2.6%
FCA11.5%11.3%11.0%
Ford11.3%12.5%10.6%
GM18.7%16.4%16.7%
Honda9.3%10.4%9.2%
Hyundai4.5%4.3%4.6%
Kia3.7%3.6%4.2%
Nissan5.8%6.4%6.1%
Subaru4.3%4.6%4.5%
Tesla2.5%1.8%2.0%
Toyota15.6%15.0%17.2%
Volkswagen Group4.3%4.3%4.6%


Average Transaction Price (ATP)

ManufacturerDec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020 ActualYOYMOM
BMW $61,779 $58,988 $59,7334.7%3.4%
Daimler $60,259 $57,641 $57,3934.5%5.0%
FCA $44,618 $41,940 $44,1676.4%1.0%
Ford $44,750 $42,785 $43,8404.6%2.1%
GM $44,776 $41,393 $43,8058.2%2.2%
Honda $31,247 $29,938 $31,1004.4%0.5%
Hyundai $29,733 $26,854 $29,20410.7%1.8%
Kia $28,460 $26,108 $28,0279.0%1.5%
Nissan $30,411 $29,767 $30,0062.2%1.3%
Subaru $30,777 $30,463 $30,5281.0%0.8%
Toyota $36,272 $34,330 $35,6965.7%1.6%
Volkswagen Group $45,195 $43,093 $43,9044.9%2.9%
Industry $38,979 $37,029 $37,9915.3%2.6%


Incentive Spending

ManufacturerDec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020
Actual
YOYMOM
BMW $5,774 $5,901 $5,211-2.1%10.8%
Daimler $4,336 $6,246 $4,438-30.6%-2.3%
FCA $4,559 $5,346 $4,567-14.7%-0.2%
Ford $4,914 $4,952 $4,449-0.8%10.4%
GM $4,649 $5,742 $4,974-19.0%-6.5%
Honda $2,750 $2,615 $2,4605.2%11.8%
Hyundai $2,926 $3,101 $2,497-5.6%17.2%
Kia $3,304 $3,686 $2,999-10.4%10.2%
Nissan $4,940 $4,781 $4,4963.3%9.9%
Subaru $1,540 $1,244 $1,50523.8%2.3%
Toyota $3,027 $2,854 $2,6906.1%12.5%
Volkswagen Group $4,554 $4,896 $4,263-7.0%6.8%
Industry $3,991 $4,309 $3,783-7.4%5.5%


Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

ManufacturerDec 2020
Forecast
Dec 2019
Actual
Nov 2020
Actual
YOYMOM
BMW9.3%10.0%8.7%-6.6%7.1%
Daimler7.2%10.8%7.7%-33.6%-6.9%
FCA10.2%12.7%10.3%-19.8%-1.2%
Ford11.0%11.6%10.1%-5.1%8.2%
GM10.4%13.9%11.4%-25.1%-8.6%
Honda8.8%8.7%7.9%0.8%11.3%
Hyundai9.8%11.5%8.5%-14.8%15.1%
Kia11.6%14.1%10.7%-17.8%8.5%
Nissan16.2%16.1%15.0%1.1%8.4%
Subaru5.0%4.1%4.9%22.5%1.5%
Toyota8.3%8.3%7.5%0.4%10.7%
Volkswagen Group10.1%11.4%9.7%-11.3%3.8%
Industry10.2%11.6%10.0%-12.0%2.8%


Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ4 2020Q4 2019Q3 2020YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW103,531100,73878,6342.8%1.5%31.7%28.3%
Daimler87,230104,67272,868-16.7%-17.7%19.7%16.7%
FCA496,197545,693504,058-9.1%-10.2%-1.6%-4.1%
Ford528,112598,728549,134-11.8%-12.9%-3.8%-6.3%
GM778,751732,618662,1436.3%5.0%17.6%14.6%
Honda363,175401,961388,433-9.6%-10.8%-6.5%-8.9%
Hyundai183,729188,742174,573-2.7%-3.9%5.2%2.6%
Kia158,804151,740165,0134.7%3.3%-3.8%-6.2%
Nissan245,420301,291221,150-18.5%-19.6%11.0%8.2%
Subaru175,499174,788169,4460.4%-0.9%3.6%1.0%
Tesla47,06453,75055,700-12.4%-13.5%-15.5%-17.6%
Toyota660,336604,017558,4499.3%7.9%18.2%15.3%
Volkswagen Group164,463167,745147,880-2.0%-3.2%11.2%8.4%
Industry 4,181,850 4,290,911 3,898,745 -2.5%-3.8%7.3%4.5%


Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ4 2020Q4 2019Q3 2020YoY % ChangeYoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % ChangeQoQ % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW101,70592,48451,76010.0%8.6%96.5%91.5%
Daimler85,44796,18956,995-11.2%-12.3%49.9%46.1%
FCA410,767415,481322,158-1.1%-2.4%27.5%24.3%
Ford430,783447,712355,210-3.8%-5.0%21.3%18.2%
GM676,434583,040438,17816.0%14.5%54.4%50.5%
Honda361,658398,547290,488-9.3%-10.4%24.5%21.3%
Hyundai170,945155,082141,76710.2%8.8%20.6%17.5%
Kia152,897136,668122,21811.9%10.5%25.1%21.9%
Nissan201,297228,008151,149-11.7%-12.8%33.2%29.8%
Subaru168,956168,684133,7090.2%-1.1%26.4%23.2%
Tesla76,42153,75025,24842.2%40.4%202.7%195.0%
Toyota586,550567,177386,0693.4%2.1%51.9%48.1%
Volkswagen Group161,933162,686114,221-0.5%-1.7%41.8%38.2%
Industry 3,720,682 3,652,993 2,702,199 1.9%0.6%37.7%34.2%


Total Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ4 2020Q4 2019Q3 2020
BMW2.5%2.3%2.0%
Daimler2.1%2.4%1.9%
FCA11.9%12.7%12.9%
Ford12.6%14.0%14.1%
GM18.6%17.1%17.0%
Honda8.7%9.4%10.0%
Hyundai4.4%4.4%4.5%
Kia3.8%3.5%4.2%
Nissan5.9%7.0%5.7%
Subaru4.2%4.1%4.3%
Tesla1.1%1.3%1.4%
Toyota15.8%14.1%14.3%
Volkswagen Group3.9%3.9%3.8%


Retail Market Share, Quarterly

ManufacturerQ4 2020Q4 2019Q3 2020
BMW2.7%2.5%1.9%
Daimler2.3%2.6%2.1%
FCA11.0%11.4%11.9%
Ford11.6%12.3%13.1%
GM18.2%16.0%16.2%
Honda9.7%10.9%10.8%
Hyundai4.6%4.2%5.2%
Kia4.1%3.7%4.5%
Nissan5.4%6.2%5.6%
Subaru4.5%4.6%4.9%
Tesla2.1%1.5%0.9%
Toyota15.8%15.5%14.3%
Volkswagen Group4.4%4.5%4.2%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/bde61465-7855-4a50-bab6-561da628c7d0


TrueCar PR Contacts:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

Tanya Kohan 
tkohan@truecar.com  
714.425.6319

December 2020 Retail Sales Chart

Retail Sales Change (DSR): Percent Difference Year-Over-Year
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