The Covid-19 pandemic is now expected to reduce U.S. airport traffic by over 365 million enplanements for the year ending September 2021, compared to the same period in 2019. This will result in losses of over $6.0 billion in direct passenger airport-spend revenues. Other losses, such as airline landing fees and concession revenues, are in addition.
These are conclusions in the Airports:USA® 2021-2030 enplanement forecast, accomplished by Boyd Group International, covering 166 airports comprising over 95% of all passengers. It will be presented at the 25th International Aviation Forecast Summit, October 11-13 in Cincinnati, USA.
“The summer rebound has completely petered out,” noted Michael Boyd, president. “The reasons are outside of the airline industry. Consumers are getting mixed messages regarding travel-choking reactions at cities across the nation on the part of local authorities.”
For example, some states may suddenly implement quarantine entry periods. Others have restrictions on access to venues, hotels and restaurants. Even with the major sanitation strides made by airlines and airports, it is uncertainty of conditions across the nation that is restricting demand. “These represent giant ‘don’t travel’ messages to consumers.”
Moving into the future, the forecast indicates there will be a decline in number of airports served by each airline, as they downsize into smaller route systems. The decisional criteria will be where existing traffic can be aggregated at fewer airports in a metro area, and at airports that generate the strongest feed revenues.
“U.S. airlines will continue to restructure into tighter revenue-generation systems. On both ends of the capacity spectrum – small jets and intercontinental widebodies – fleets will be culled, representing major revisions in how airlines will operate.”
Based on changes in consumer patterns and airline systems, the Airports:USA® forecast indicates that year 2019 traffic levels will not return until 2023, and will represent a very different air transportation system. “The inroads made by electronic communication channels will continue to nip away at business travel,” the forecast notes.
Airports:USA® is just one segment of the 25th International Aviation Forecast Summit, October 11-13, taking place at Cincinnati USA. It is the only event of its kind and features presentations by airline and aviation executives across the industry, as well as independent forecasts of air travel trends across the globe.
More information: www.AviationForecastConference.com